Top 10 US States by Fastest Residential Solar Payback
PlainSolarData ranks US states by the modeled residential solar payback period (years to break-even on a representative 6 kW rooftop system) using NREL irradiance, state-average electricity rates, and current system installation cost.
Research period:
Research question
Where in the United States is residential solar economics most favorable from a payback standpoint, and how do irradiance, retail electricity rates, system cost per watt, and state incentive support combine to determine the breakeven period for a representative 6 kW rooftop installation?
Methodology
This ranking is generated fresh from the current dataset from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory every time the page loads, not a fixed figure typed in once and forgotten. When a new release is published, our next data refresh picks it up automatically.
States with no data reported are left out rather than shown as a false zero, since the National Renewable Energy Laboratory occasionally withholds a figure for data-quality reasons.
Every number on this page traces back to a specific record from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, so you can verify it yourself against the original source. See the methodology page for the full data pipeline and how often we refresh.
Top 10 US States by Fastest Residential Solar Payback
Live data, current as of the most recent source-data refresh
The ranked top 10
Every row below reflects the current dataset from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and updates automatically the next time we refresh it.
| # | State | Payback (yrs) | Avg electricity rate (¢/kWh) | Avg irradiance (kWh/m²/day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawaii | 5 | 38 | 6 |
| 2 | California | 6 | 30 | 6 |
| 3 | Connecticut | 9 | 29 | 4 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 9 | 28 | 4 |
| 5 | Maine | 9 | 26 | 4 |
| 6 | Rhode Island | 10 | 26 | 4 |
| 7 | New Hampshire | 10 | 26 | 4 |
| 8 | Arizona | 10 | 14 | 7 |
| 9 | New Mexico | 10 | 14 | 6 |
| 10 | New York | 11 | 22 | 4 |
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL Solar Resource Maps + EIA retail rates + LBNL system cost survey. Values are current as of our most recent data refresh. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL Solar Resource Maps + EIA retail rates + LBNL system cost survey. Values are current as of our most recent data refresh.
Findings
Top entity in the ranking
The top-ranked record in this dataset is Hawaii, with a value of 5 on the Payback (yrs) column. The full top-10 set is rendered in the table above. Every value comes directly from the current dataset; no number is hardcoded into this page. When the source agency publishes a revision, the ranking and the prose around it update automatically.
Distribution shape
The gap between the top-ranked record (5) and the 10th-ranked record (11) characterizes how concentrated the top of the distribution is. Where the top value is many multiples of the median value of the visible set, the population is highly concentrated, a small number of entities accumulate the bulk of the measured quantity. Where the top and bottom of the visible set are close together, the distribution is relatively flat across the top end. The full distribution beyond this top-10 cut is summarized in the aggregate context section below and explored in the linked entity profiles.
Aggregate context
Across the full population behind this ranking, here are the summary statistics: how many records exist in total, the sum of the ranking metric across all qualifying records, and the mean per-record value. The methodology page documents the exact filter applied (records with null or zero values on the ranking metric are excluded). This aggregate row is computed from the same dataset that powers the ranking above.
Source provenance
The records in this ranking originate from National Renewable Energy Laboratory, specifically the NREL Solar Resource Maps + EIA retail rates + LBNL system cost survey. PlainSolarData ingests each new release and republishes the figures here automatically, so this page always reflects the current dataset rather than a fixed snapshot. The methodology page documents the source URL, the vintage date, and the transformation steps applied during ETL.
Why this ranking matters
Rankings like this one let a reader scan a population quickly and identify outliers, concentrations, and patterns that warrant deeper investigation. The detail pages linked from each entity in the table above give the full per-entity context: time-series history where available, related metrics from adjacent tables, and links onward to the underlying source records. The methodology page explains how an entity earns inclusion in the dataset and how the ranking column is computed at the source.
What this analysis cannot tell us
Payback estimates are modeled outputs based on representative inputs and do not reflect any specific household's actual bill, financing terms, or system performance. The model assumes a 6 kW system at the state-average installed cost per watt, the state-average residential retail electricity rate, NREL irradiance for the state's largest metro, and a static degradation curve. Actual payback varies with roof orientation, shading, system efficiency, utility-specific rate tariff (TOU vs flat), the federal Investment Tax Credit (which applies similarly across states and is excluded from this state-level differentiation), and state-specific incentives that are catalogued separately. Net-metering rules differ significantly by state and can extend or compress payback by 1–3 years; the table here is a cross-state comparison and not an installation recommendation. Payback should never be the sole input to a household solar decision; consult a licensed installer, state-utility-commission resources, and the federal tax-credit guidance from IRS Form 5695 instructions.
Secondary cut from the same source
Top 10 states by composite solar score (combines irradiance, electricity rates, payback, and policy support)
Sources
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Solar Resource Maps and Data - https://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Average Retail Price of Electricity - https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Tracking the Sun (system cost survey) - https://emp.lbl.gov/tracking-the-sun